I just wrote an entry concerning OS X running on Apple boxes and the possibility of OS X running on Wintel boxes. It made me think about something that I've talked about for a long time. Is Microsoft actually looking to stop developing Windows?
Now, before you think I'm crazy or just stupid. Let's look at some facts.
1. There's been hints of this in speeches by Gates numerous times. Never anything obvious or an outright statement as such, but it's been there.
2. Microsoft has taken 3 times longer to develop Vista than they originally thought it would. That's a lot of R&D dollars to recoup. Do they really want to start thinking about doing that again?
3. Apple and Microsoft have been working together for quite some time to get Vista to work with the new Intel Macs.
4. There's absolutely no doubt that Microsoft sees web services as their real source of long-term income. This includes most software they now produce being websidized. This word I just made up means not just making them web-enabled, but making them web-based programs. I'm thinking monthly fees and better control of fighting piracy. It wouldn't be perfect, but you could tie software licenses to MAC addresses that get checked routinely.
5. People are already starting to switch away from Windows. Sure, it's an incredibly slow switch, but it's happening. At the very least, they are looking at alternatives for the first time.
I think the most obvious point is #4. Why develop the difficult part, an OS, when you can simply develop the software everyone uses no matter which OS they use?
Yet, I can't say this is anything more than a hunch. Step one would have to be OS X and Windows running on the same machine. Well, this is already happening and with a Vista - Mac Intel combination, it will simply be strengthened. Step two would have to be OS X on Wintel boxes. I argued against this in the other blog entry as a bad move on Apple's part and I still contend, for now, it would be. However, three years from now, it could be a good move, if the writing is on the wall about no new Windows EVER.
So, I say all this and I know it still may seem crazy talk. Even if remote, I think it's a possibility. The two things that may prevent all this from happening? Gates' refusal to cede the Operating System control to anyone else. Microsoft's fear that they will still have to compete with Apple on the software end of things; they might just lose that battle too.
Finally, will the US ever let Apple gain control of the OS market? Even if this all occurred, it would take decades to complete the transition. During this transition, one set of people that would benefit would be Linux proponents.
